beardyboy_forums: Recent Posts

beardyboy_forums: Recent Posts http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/ happy discussions! en-US Tue, 07 Sep 2010 02:06:04 +0000 http://bbpress.org/?v=1.0 <![CDATA[Search]]> q http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/search.php beardyboy on "Ten years of tough times ahead!" http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/topic.php?id=2#post-9 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 13:03:28 +0000 beardyboy 9@http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/ 21.11.09 Here are some snippets from the FT Emirates financial troubles continue to build. Excess growth 2003-2008 created $80bn debt and burst real estate bubble. $20bn govt funds for state businesses. Dubai renogatiate billions of debt with bankers, trying to raise finance to pay $4bn bill for the city's Palm Islands. Tim pointed out to me that the bond markets are quite worried about the global impact of a crashing Emirates economy. Japan in mild deflation again. Poor Japanese, after 10 years of recession they just get out of it and are plunged back in by the GFC. Some good news: Chinese wedding surge fuel demand for platinum rings. Platinum sales had plunged due to down turn in car market where it is used for catalytic conerters. I think Platinum will be a good investment when the recession hits the bottom in a couple of years time. Some news which shows how shaky the current recovery is and that we may see another bang fairly soon: ECB sees financial markets recovering and is pulling back support for central banks before there are any asset price bubbles and excess bank profits. German Finance minister warns that weak dollar and low interest rates threaten fresh asset price bubbles. There is official concern in Europe that further market turbulence will arise due to central bank and govt intervention to combat the cricis. My comment: ECB is worried that asset prices have been rising due to rubbish alternatives i.e. Weak dollar and low interest rates. Bubbles may form and asset backed securities are risky for them to accept in return for money. G7 market economist comment: This week signs of feelgood effects of international Central banks actions to monetise public and private sector liabilities (financial assets) give way to fear about repricing of risk. Several countries moving towards imposing capital controls to stem hot money flowing into their economies amid mounting fears of an emerging market asset bubble. My comment: Brasil already has. There has been a rally since March in EM assets. News that the USA is in trouble over the next 10 years: Obama admits that US fast growing debt could cause people to lose confidence in America and trigger a double dip recession. Current debt trajectory is unsustainable. Expected 11.2% defecit of output this year and 7.4% shortfall in 2020. Needs to reign in borrowing. UK also needs to consolidate. As I said in June, we have only seen the tip of the ice berg. These troubled times will have to get worse over the next few years before they can get better. beardyboy on "Ten years of tough times ahead!" http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/topic.php?id=2#post-8 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 12:52:08 +0000 beardyboy 8@http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/ 07.11.09 US jobless above 10% highest since 1983. Europe sees smaller rise and UK stopped rising. I'd like to point out that many in the finance industry are still on gardening leave. Obama is extending unemployment benefit and tax credits for homebuyers. Wants to spend more on roads and bridges, tax credits for businesses to create jobs and agressive exports....... but dire state of public finances limits Obamas options. beardyboy on "US war on drugs killing South America?" http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/topic.php?id=3#post-7 Fri, 21 Aug 2009 07:03:44 +0000 beardyboy 7@http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/ Hey weirdybeardyboy, very interesting reading and indeed I thought it was very strange that Colombia was allowing US military bases to be set up here considering S.Americas history of with the USA. It is a controversial topic in the newspapers with Ecuador and Venezuela accusing Colombian president of betraying South America. I asked a couple of taxi drivers about their thoughts and found out that the president is not popular amongst the people. They believe in his connections to a major drug cartel (medellin I guess) and that he is using the militia to control the drug trafficking operations for his own purposes and using US military forced to help him eliminate the competition the FARC. Your articles confirm this perception and a lot more. I've thought for a long time that the US (and other western powers UK included) use military and other tactics to try and keep control of oil money and arms dealing money but didn't think about drug money. It makes sense that as that is the third largest money making industry in the world that they would want to control that too by moving the military machine into Colombia, Afghanistan and next will be Pakistan, Mexico etc. There have been signs for some years now that South American countries are throwing of the bonds of Western countries ties and this must be scary to the US and others. In Ecuador our guide told us that 70% of oil profits now go to Ecuadorians instead of foreign multinational companies (especially US and British companies) since two years ago when the government started getting tough. Colombia isn't so lucky. An interesting read for you is The Economic Hitman, about a guy whose job it has been to get inside third world countries and ensure that they become indebted to western powers. Kate on "Horse-pulled carriages in Cartagena, Colombia" http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/topic.php?id=4#post-6 Wed, 19 Aug 2009 03:28:25 +0000 Kate 6@http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/ Walking on our first evening in Cartagena from Getsemani, where our hostel is, towards the Centro district I enjoyed admiring all the colonial architecture which had obviously been maintained with great care over the years. The streets were filled with people out to enjoy an evening of entertainment and good food. There was a contagiously energetic atmosphere surrounding us as we went in search of a good restaurant. I heard, very soon into the Centro district, a set of hooves making their way down the street, and being a great admirer of horses I eagerly looked towards him. I was shocked and saddened to see the physical state of this horse, and even more so to see his emotional state. His ribs were very prominent and the hip bones on his rump were extremely acute. His coat was dull and had many sores where his tack had been consistently rubbing. His neck was thin and he held his head low. The bridle on his head was ill-fitting and one of the straps down his cheek was rubbing into the corner of his eye. His shoes sounded ill-fitting as well as they struck the road with a misaligned clank. He struggled maintaining a pace, either a walk or a trot, due to his lack of strength and energy. But the saddest sight was his eyes and his ears. A well cared for horse will have alert and inquisitive eyes with ears flicking forwards and backwards as he watches with interest the goings-on surrounding him while also concentrating on what his driver is asking of him. This horse had no life in his eyes. They were dull and defeated. And his ears remained at an angle to his head, never flickering with interest or attention. It was a miserable sight made even worse by the jolly holiday-makers laughing away in the carriage behind the dejected horse. Did they realise the suffering their enjoyment was inflicting on this innocent horse? I hope not. But I saw many horses in similar decrepit states with equally happy passengers, passengers who had either enjoyed a good meal before the ride or who were eagerly looking forward to tucking into a tasty and nutritious dinner afterwards. I wonder when these horses, providing all this fun and entertainment for their passengers, had last enjoyed such a meal? I didn’t get the impression that the passengers cared, as long as they got their meal for the evening. The restaurant we chose to eat in that evening was on the Plaza Santa Domingo, with a balcony overlooking the Plaza. Unfortunately I could see and hear the many poor horses pulling their heavy carriages throughout our entire meal, a meal I felt guilty to enjoy while these horses suffered. One horse I saw nearly fell forward when his front hooves lost grip on the slippery road because his load was so heavy. This malnourished and very tired horse was being asked to pull six people in the carriage, seven including the driver. The horse managed to get the carriage moving, only to immediately stop again in the traffic jam. He dropped his head and struggled to catch his breath. His sides were heaving and his head was nodding in time with his desperate breathing. As the horse stood there with his nose directly behind the next carriage the bored driver continued to flick the horse’s flank with his whip, constantly stressing the horse during his struggle to catch a breath. Most of the horses working that evening were in such a condition. However, I was pleased and relieved to see that a few horses did have, maybe not glossy but at least, good coats with ribs barely showing. Most importantly some held their heads high, with bright eyes and alert ears. I only wished that holiday-makers would choose only these horses and explain to the drivers why they would not choose the carriage being pulled by the walking (or trotting) dead. I was shocked when I saw that the on-line Frommer’s guide to Colombia recommended tourists to inflict such suffering on these horses in order for some romantic entertainment in Cartagena. The touristic newspaper, Donde, which I picked up at the airport arriving into Cartagena commented on the importance and the majestic nature of these horse-pulled carriages for newlyweds. I also think taking a horse-pulled carriage is romantic and can be a wonderful experience having such a magnificent and noble creature lead you through the city. This experience shouldn’t disappear, but the treatment and care given to the horses should certainly be improved. I believe the best way for this change to take place is for those looking to enjoy a ride in a carriage to be aware of the state of the horse pulling their carriage. There couldn’t be a stronger signal to the owners of the malnourished horses if no one were to choose their carriage due to the lack of care their horse had access to. Richard Emblin, director of the city paper of Bogotá, writes in his article The law of the jungle (August 2009) how “shameful” the killing of the African hippopotamus Pepe was after he escaped his deceased drug lord owner’s ranch. He also comments on how the “savage tradition” of bull fighting should be abolished throughout Colombia. I think also attention should be turned to those animals suffering to provide touristic entertainment, these horses in Cartagena. Maybe then the energetic atmosphere in the city in the evenings wouldn’t be so dampened by the sight of these energy-less working horses. If we, as tourists and holiday-makers, want to enjoy our short stay in Cartagena let’s allow the horses working here to enjoy, a little more, their entire life. WeirdyBeardyBoy on "US war on drugs killing South America?" http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/topic.php?id=3#post-5 Wed, 12 Aug 2009 11:27:03 +0000 WeirdyBeardyBoy 5@http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/ Further reading 2009 - US Escalates War Plans In Latin America <a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20090723&articleId=14503" rel="nofollow">http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20090723&articleId=14503</a> 2001 - There's oil in them there hills! <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/latin_america/july-dec01/oil&drugs_07-06.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/latin_america/july-dec01/oil&drugs_07-06.html</a> American foriegn policy continues to astound me, and is worryingly perpetuated by the UK to a lesser degree (at least it's often a better kept offical secret). How the hell is the world supposed to get any better with bloodthirsty amoral clowns in charge? WeirdyBeardyBoy on "US war on drugs killing South America?" http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/topic.php?id=3#post-4 Wed, 12 Aug 2009 10:08:14 +0000 WeirdyBeardyBoy 4@http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/ I wonder if you have seen any effects of the war on Coca being waged across Colombia and Peru (amongst other countries). <a href="http://www.monitor.net/monitor/0008a/copyright/amazoncokefungus.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.monitor.net/monitor/0008a/copyright/amazoncokefungus.html</a> Fusarium Exosporium fungus sprayed over vast areas of peasant Coca farm land and non drug related farm land indiscriminately. "U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) planes spraying coca fields with the fungus." "The soil-borne mold infects crops by secreting toxins into their roots, which then putrefy and dissolve the plant's cells, often eventually killing them, or worse, poisoning humans or animals who feed on contaminated plants or plant products." "..the fungus could remain in the soil for up to 40 years" "The mutated fungi can cause disease in a large number of crops, including tomatoes, peppers, flowers, corn and vines" "The toxin fumonisin B1 produced by fusarium has been found to cause edema of the lungs in pigs, cancer in rats, and cancer of the esophagus in human beings. But other strains of Fusarium are even more dangerous, and have been found to contain nivalenol, which causes vomiting, diarrhoea, bleeding and skin lesions, and deooxynivalenol -- or vomitoxin -- which has been used as an agent of chemical warfare." Further poking about on the web led me to discover more shocking information on this debacle. Farmers who have switched over to planting plantain, yucca and peas have had their crops devestated, and soil treated with the fungus remains unproductive and useless for agriculture forcing mass migrations of peasant farmers into previously untouched rainforest where they slash and burn to make way for their new crops whatever they may be. The farcical nature of government intervention in the Coca trade has led to Coca farmers being aided by the military (esp. Colombia and Peru) during the 80's even to the degree of having military helicopters flying the drugs out of the less accessible regions. The complete reversal of this official policy to comply with US pressure has lead to the increase in control and protection of the trade by the militia in Colombia who are not held accountable by their government since they aid in the persecution of the FARC guerillas who used to enjoy an equal status with the militia. Perversley the FARC guerillas are now encouraging farmers in many areas to switch from Coca to other crops in order to hurt the funding of the militia by the drugs trade. So the "baddies" are encouraging the very thing that the US are aiming for, and the Colombian government sanctioned militia who now control up to 80% of the country (the official military are so poorly funded they can barely control 10 - 20%) are the ones sustaining the continued farming of Coca! They also have bought their way into almost every sector of public life in Colombia making eradicating the trade almost impossible. I would have thought that the amount of money spent by the US and local governments trying to eradicate the Coca farming and cocaine trade would have been better spent subsidising the farming of alternative diverse crops such as cocoa, bananas etc. rather than seeding the land with deadly toxic fungi rendering it barren. But I guess that would be defeating the vested interests of a great many in power. -Edit- just found this which looks worrying! <a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20090723&articleId=14503" rel="nofollow">http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20090723&articleId=14503</a> beardyboy on "Ten years of tough times ahead!" http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/topic.php?id=2#post-3 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:38:31 +0000 beardyboy 3@http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/ I see that the banks are still up to their old tricks by inventing new mechanisms called "smart securitisation" which pooling assets from clients into a secured financial product that can be sold to investors and rated by a credit rating agency. Similar to the collaterallised loan obligations that caused the sub prime mess. Of course these are transparent and only involve banks existing assets! Hmmm....old dogs with old tricks? beardyboy on "Ten years of tough times ahead!" http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/topic.php?id=2#post-2 Tue, 07 Jul 2009 04:11:48 +0000 beardyboy 2@http://www.beardyboy.com/wordpress/wp-content/bbpress/ It is now June 2009 and about a year into the global economic financial cricis, and although many jobs have been lost and many companies have been bankrupted, I do not think that most people realise how bad it is going to get in the next few years. I am optimistic that eventually we will come out of recession....but only in ten years time after things have got a lot worse than today. Here are some reasons why I think we will decline over the next few years and then not start to recover until 2020. 1) Decades of borrowing to feed growth have come to a sudden end in a collapse brought about by people borrowing and spending more money than they earn and companies growing faster than can be maintained in the long run. The result has got to be a shakeout across all economic sectors where bankruptcies, mergers and acquisitions change the face of the landscape and allow us to emerge at the other end of the recession with fewer leaner, more effecient and more harmonious institutions with regards to standardisation of goods and services particularly in crowded competitive sectors. At the moment I believe that this shakeout is being prevented from happening by governments artificially propping up ineffecient industry by lending more money and continuing the growth and borrowing craziness which got us into this mess in the first place. Newspapers talk about recovery and that the worst is over. I think this is temporary recovery boosted by tax payers money and that it will not last. When the crash does come there will be no more money to bail out bad companies and worse than that there will be no government money for public services. 2) We have reached near saturation of the microchip led cycle of market growth, with the personal computer, mobile phones and internet access. It is time for the shakeout of companies in these sectors with resulting standardisation and slow growth benefiting the consumer before the next boom cycle starts. 3) The post war baby boomer generation is retiring over the next decade. This means an exodus of highly paid big spenders from the work force, who will stop paying taxes and start drawing on the state funds for pension and health care. This will be a huge problem for the governments who have spent all the taxpayers money on prolonging the borrowing and spending craze, as they will have nothing less for pensions, health care, schools, policing, infrastructure repair etc. Not only are there going to be a very large amount of pensioners to look after with government money, but the age groups below in the population pyramid contain far fewer people who are working and paying these much needed taxes. Europe is badly affected by this aging population problem and the United States is also affected (to a lesser extent) but is also over $11 trillion in debt ( <a href="http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/" rel="nofollow">http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/</a> ) and I've read reports that U.S. infrastructure is badly in need of funds for repair and maintenance. Other implications of an aging population include downsizing of property as people retire to smaller homes and flood the market with no longer needed larger properties. This will affect property prices. 4) Environmental issues. We are facing new challenges of a growing world population (declining in western countries but growing in poorer ones) but running out of energy and water whilst facing rising sea levels and global warming. Glaciers provide much drinking water through feeding rivers in S.America, India and surrounding areas. These are melting away and new catastrophes will hit those areas. It would be great if our countries were prepared for the way in which such changes to our planet will affect us and had action plans ready across the world. But unfortunately I can't see that we will be ready to take on these challenges, but will instead still be struggling to deal with our own economic disasters and fighting each other for resources and access to markets etc.